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4b               Only time will tell






                      . READING

                        A.  Discuss.           B.  Read the text quickly and choose the most suitable introduction
                                                 for it, a, b or c.
                        •  What do you know
                          about the following?   a. It is very difficult to make correct predictions about the future, but four
                                                   famous people have tried. So, let’s see what the future holds.
                          the Wright brothers
                                                 b. With the world changing so quickly, it is very difficult to make correct
                          IBM          YouTube     predictions about the future. Some people get it right, others get it wrong.
                                                   Some people, however, are a long way off. Here are a few examples.
                          20  Century Fox
                           th
                                                 c. Nowadays, we fly planes, use computers and relax in front of the TV. We
                                                   don’t think it’s something special. But how about in the past? What was
                                                   life like then?
                                      © MM Publications



                                           ‘Man will not fly for fifty years.’

                                             Wilbur Wright, to his brother Orville (1901)
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                                           I I In 1901, the Wright brothers tried out their flying machine for the first time
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                                           but were very  disappointed  when they didn’t  succeed.  However, two years
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                                           only 18 years after Wilbur made his prediction, Captain John Alcock and
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                                           S i r  A r t h u r  W h i t t e n  B r o w n  m a d e  t h e  f i r s t  n o n - s t o p  t r a n s a t l a n t i c  f l i g h t  f r o m
                                           Sir Arthur Whitten Brown made the first non-stop transatlantic flight from
                                           Newfoundland, Canada to Ireland.
                                           N e w f o u nd l a nd ,   C a n a d a   t o   I r e l a nd .
                             ‘I think there’s a world market
                             for about five computers.’
                             Thomas J. Watson, chairman of the board of IBM (1943)
                 This  prediction  seems    ridiculous    today,  but  it  was  true  for  ten
                 years after Watson said it. Even so, today there are about two billion
                 y e a r s  a f t e r  W a t s o n  s a i d  i t .  E v e n  s o ,  t o d a y  t h e r e  a r e  a b o u t  t w o  b i l l i o n

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                 computers in use in the world. Experts  predict  there will be a lot more
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                 in the near future.
                                            ‘Television won’t  last  because people will soon
                                            get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.’
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                                            Darryl Zanuck, film producer, 20  Century Fox (1946) )
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                                            Zanuck played a  major  role in the Hollywood studio system from 1922 to
                                                             a

                                            1970, but he definitely got it wrong about television. The total number of
                                            TV sets in the world is over 1.5 billion. In the USA, there are over 2,000 TV
                                            channels and on average, most adults watch over five hours of TV every day.
                  ‘There’s just not that many videos
                  I want to watch.’ Steve Chen, co-founder of YouTube (2005)
                  At the time, Chen was worried about the popularity of his site. Luckily for Chen, he continued with his
                  YouTube idea and almost two years later, on 13 November 2006, he made a lot of money when Google
                  bought YouTube for $1.65 billion. Today, YouTube is the Internet’s largest video-sharing website.
                  People from all around the world watch hundreds of millions of videos every day.
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